With Liverpool having a 13 point lead, I don't think that I'd be out of place saying that the league is all but gone as a realistic target for an Arsenal squad bereft of a single fit striker. So it is now time to re-evaluate; to set new targets and to think about what is needed between now and the start of next season. There are two clear areas to work on - quite simply firstly on the field, and secondly off of it. It's not exactly rocket science.
This would be a very long piece if I dealt with both today, so I'll look at off-field issues next time. But there's still plenty to consider on the first topic. So let's get into those.
The targets for Arteta and the team seem pretty clear to me:
1. Work out how they are ever going to score another goal!
2. Ensure a Top 2 - or should things go horribly wrong a Top 4/Top 5 finish at the very worst. Yes, it could easily get that bad in a 'worst case scenario'. And get past PSV
3. Play to the team's current strengths
4. And then re-evaluate when firstly Martinelli, and then Saka return
We've seen over the past two Premier League matches firstly the very worst of Arsenal, and then the unlucky side of the coin. There are no words to describe the performance at home to West Ham with any other than synonyms of dreadful (a thesaurus will give you such as appalling, atrocious, shameful and several others of a similar ilk). I have no desire to revisit it, except to say that the staff must have surely learned from it.
Against Forest, the performance was considerably better, with the team going into a ground that has become a fortress and controlling proceedings almost throughout - against, lest we forget, the team right behind Arsenal in the table - and coming out with what, on paper, was a perfectly satisfactory point that we'd have all settled for beforehand. But it also illustrated a number of the issues with which the team have been struggling recently (since the 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City which was, would you believe, just a month ago!).
As we know, Arteta loves his teams to have 'control'; to hog the ball and work the opposition over. But this tactic needs development; he needs to find new ways to do this - opposition managers are wise to his tactics and, in the absence of some key 'difference makers', he needs to throw in some curve balls. Certainly over the next 10 weeks. Otherwise the season is going to fizzle out in a sea of mediocrity and apathy.
Nuno's post-match interview revealed a lot about how teams are going to deal with the threat - such as it is - between now and the end of May. When asked why he didn't play his usual three centre-backs, he responded that they didn't need to as 'Arsenal don't have any strikers'. Well;.... derrrr!
But despite that Arsenal still dominated. Because they still have a very solid defence and a pretty decent midfield - in whichever formation and player selection Arteta chooses. The manager did try a few new things against Forest; Jorginho for Partey was fair enough, he pushed Rice on to join Merino when he could, he even tried Zinchenko in midfield late on (something that he'd been loath to do for the past three years!) and he gave LOADS of freedom to Calafiori to get as far forward as he wanted. Indeed, had the Italian had a little bit more luck with what turned out to be Arsenal's best chance of the game (the ball cannoned back off of a post) it's entirely possible that a very satisfactory 1-0 win would have come Arsenal's way, and we'd have been evaluating things quite differently.
Arsenal had a lot of corners and free kicks against Forest, but unfortunately their good fortune from such situations has somewhat deserted them. Clearly some of their tactics have been well studied by opposing coaches, and so the results from them have somewhat reverted to the mean; fewer good chances, and fewer goals. Perhaps Nicolas Jover needs to switch things up like Richmond FC did in the brilliant series Ted Lasso. A Sandman, a Lasso Special, a Beckham's Todger or an Upside Down Taxi perhaps? I jest...
And so Arteta must surely lean into solidity; for all that - as I and others have warned you - is going to make for a very difficult 'watch' between now and the end of the season. Boring, boring Arsenal? Well... needs must; and I'll take a series of 1-0 wins at this point. Surely you will too?
But perhaps - just perhaps - Arteta might (in an alternative universe) go maverick. He can rely on a solid defence and midfield; but has he got it in him to try something wild? To be honest, I doubt it, but I'd love to see it.
So how can Arteta deploy his troops until the cavalry return at (hopefully) the beginning of April? There are several areas where decisions need to be made. So let's have a look.
- Full backs - MLS or Calafiori? Timber or the returning Ben White? Or Timber at left back?
If it were me... I'd be tempted to use the returning White on the right; as I can see that helping a somewhat forlorn Martin Odegaard - at least get two points of the successful right hand side triangle back together. And Timber needs a rest. On the left, it'll be MLS for solidity, or Calafiori for that little bit of chaos going forward
- Midfield - Partey or Jorginho? Where to best use Declan Rice? How to solve the 'left 8' conundrum? What instructions need to be relayed to the skipper?
And this is difficult, as there are many ways of skinning this cat. A lot revolves around what Arteta may choose to do ahead of the midfield, but I'll come to that.
For me, Odegaard is trying to do too much. He has clearly not come back to anywhere near his best since returning from injury, and for me there are a couple of reasons. Firstly - and obviously - he is missing the presence of Bukayo Saka alongside him. Secondly, in order to compensate for perceived weaknesses elsewhere he is going searching for the ball in areas into which he doesn't need to go; dropping too deep and times and therefore becoming less effective. In short, he is trying to do too much. A lack of confidence also means that he is often playing safe as and when he does receive the ball in more dangerous areas; passing when he could shoot, or looking to play a safe pass when a more risky one might be on (this is of course not helped by having to deal with penalty areas packed with opposing defenders, and at the same time lacking the sort of movement he needs from his team-mates).
Alongside/behind Odegard, Rice's role is something of an enigma. Arteta is - in the absence of a better alternative - trying to turn one of the world's best '6s' into an '8'. With Partey available, it is easy to see why the manager would want to play them both, but at some point a decision needs to be made. This guy is a 'beast' at his best - an eater of space, interceptor supreme, and a duel monster - so I'd really look to play him in his best role. How tactics may develop next season remains to be seen, but perhaps a double pivot - and Arteta could easily revert to this now - and give Odegaard the '10' role instead of the 'right 8' might solve some issues?
- Forward line - with all it's (lack of) personnel issues.
Merino's two goals at Leicester were clearly a flash in the pan, but Arsenal do need some sort of focal point at the point of their attack if they are going to continue to play in the same way. This is as much about pressing the opponoent when they are in possession as availability and movement when Arsenal have the ball. Merino is a novice at this (although I think he did quite well at Forest), but the alternatives aren't obvious. Trossard and Sterling lack the height and general build to do the job of a 9 or 'false 9' that is required - and that's without any discussion on Sterling's form and confidence - but are there any alternatives?
Nwaneri may be one, but he has his own issues; which I'll cover in the next paragraph. But if Arteta is genuinely looking for somebody or something to give opponents something different to contend with, then why not try the 'chaos theory' that Calafiori or even the Master Sh*thouser Ben White might be able to bring to that role? Desperate times, but with the solidity afforded behind by a solid if unexciting midfield, and the best central defensive partnership in the world, then why the hell not?!? I'd personally love to see Ben White at centre forward!
As for Ethan Nwaneri, there are concerns. For all his great promise and technical ability, he is clearly suffering being asked to play 90 minutes in match after match after match. There aren't many 17-year-olds who can do that. Messi did it in a fabulous Barcelona side, and the only other player of the same age who I believe was capable of it was Wayne Rooney - and Ferguson looked after him. If Arteta isn't careful, he'll lose Nwaneri to injury too. The boy's been cramping up in the second half of matches recently. It almost feels like he'll have to start Sterling, and bring on the cavalry in the shape of Ethan later in games; at least the kid is able to change a game in ways that Sterling unfortunately cannot.
Look, I don't know what I'd do if I were the manager. He has no choice but to give Sterling minutes, and it's not like Raheem isn't trying. I'm DESPERATE to see him contribute meaningfully, but perhaps he's lost his mojo forever... This is a player who was once feared by opponents - and only three years ago. And he's only 29. If we could just see a spark...
The only thing for certain is that Trossard will start. But he can also be a bit 'in and out'. We need the best version of Leo for the rest of the season, as Arteta has to rely on him as the 'senior' forward until Martinelli and Saka return. How Arsenal got into this position is for my next post...
All will be revealed over the next 8 days, which are the crux of Arsenal's season. It's Manchester United away on Sunday - and they're terrible, obviously, but Old Trafford is traditionally a difficult place to go. Either side of that is the Champions League last 16 tie with PSV - with the 'prize' a likely tie with Real Madrid. Mouth-watering, and just as equally terrifying, but it's what the Champions League is all about.
PSV may have surprised themselves by getting as far as they have. Although they did beat a depleted Liverpool in qualifying, and they score plenty of goals. They'll be open and attacking, and will therefore leave their own back door open; the question is whether Arsenal's forward line - whatever it may consist of - can take advantage. But for all their pressing and desire to take the game to the opponent in open play they - like Arsenal - will be extremely dangerous from set pieces. Arsenal need to have a plan to deal with the highly experienced - and powerful - Luuk De Jong from corners.
I'm pretty sure that Arteta will be happy to take a 0-0 scoreline home with him. Easier said than done. It will certainly be less easy to 'control' or 'dominate' the game than it is in a Premier League match, but that may actually help - a bit of space for Arsenal players to run into would be a pleasurable sight. Anyway, we shall see.
Meanwhile, Liverpool go marching on. As if they've not avoided the type of misfortune that the likes of Arsenal, City and even Tottenham have suffered all season, in the past week they've played a City side without Haaland in it, followed three days later by a Newcastle side shorn of Isak. It's written in the stars for them, I guess. And it's bloody annoying!
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