On The Brink

So, are we perhaps on for another in the long-running series of The Great Escape? And, if we are, what does it mean for the future?

First things first: we are down to the wire here. There is no room for error. Arsenal need to win, and then get some help from already relegated Middlesbrough (I'm discounting sufficient help from Watford, who'd need to thrash Manchester City) - but we must do our job first. Fortunately, Everton have absolutely nothing to play for, so that's hopeful, but I don't rate Middlesbrough's chances very highly.

We've been here before, of course, with our fate out of our hands, but Lasagnegate was an unrepeatable event, and it's not Tottenham who we're relying on to fall apart this year.

So let's surmise what finishing inside or outside the Top 4 might mean going forward:

Firstly, unless the rumours of a massive split between the Board and the Manager over the (proposed/alleged) Director of Football position are true, it looks like he will be signing a new contract. Surely his last one!?! But even with their apparent disconnect from the current reality, the hierarchy will know that this season has surely been a 'Catalyst for Change' and plans - which almost assuredly haven't yet been made - will be put in place for the massive transition job ahead.

What more and more fans are hoping for is frankly unlikely to take place this summer; the Board seem to be too distanced from reality (perhaps the 20,000 empty seats for the Sunderland match will get them thinking a bit). My view is simply that Arsene has taken the club as far as he can, and that for want of a better expression 'A change is as good as a rest'. Irrespective of whichever competition they qualify for. Surely, with the resources they have, Arsenal should be putting up some sort of a title challenge at some point - I actually don't remember the last time they did.

If it's Champions League, it will be a sporting miracle. And at that point there will be another opportunity to kick on; to use the so-called 'War Chest'. Although to be fair, £90m+ in transfer fees was spent last summer, and it hasn't helped. Thoughts, Arsene?...

On the one hand, the recent upsurge in results is very commendable, but previous abject defeats to Watford, West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace tell a totally different story. Which Arsenal is the real one? And why do we seem to be asking this question every single year?

And if it's Europa League, my personal opinion is that the game of Russian Roulette has finally backfired, and it will put the club back for years - hopefully considerably nearer what Manchester United have been through than what Liverpool have suffered. But the speed of transition will be in the hands of Silent Stan (need I say more?). Conceivably, there could be no hope for an imminent recovery. After all, which top player would be attracted enough to Arsenal to come, without Champions League football? Arsenal are not Manchester United. For the first time I can remember, Tottenham looks a more attractive destination. Ouch!

Initially, what does it mean for player retention and recruitment over the summer? Going through the squad, I would suggest that a lot of dead wood needs to be cut away. Here's my list from the current first team squad list of 'Expendables' and players likely to leave of their own volition:

Expendables:
Debuchy, Gibbs, Jenkinson, Coquelin, Sanogo, Campbell, Akpom

Other likely departures:
Ospina, Perez, Alexis Sanchez (sobs...)

I think that Alexis will go, irrespective of Champions League qualification. He must think that he can do better than stay at Arsenal - no matter how much money they throw at him - and one would tend to agree. This will leave a massive hole in the team; extremely difficult to fill. The thought fills me with dread; for all the dreadful ball-retention stats, he is the beating heart of the team. I'd offer him whatever he wants, and then a bit more, to stay.

On the other hand, I expect Ozil to stay. It's all very cosy between him and Wenger; if he's fit, he starts. And at his best I love him; but he has a way to go to get back to that (but on the other hand hit the button and replay that goal against Ludogorets... any excuse to watch it again, as far as I'm concerned).

Of the rest of the squad, I'd personally not be the remotest upset to see Gabriel and Walcott (for all his goals this season, it's enough now - especially after his 'They wanted it more' interview following the Palace defeat - moved on, and I think that unfortunately the game appears up for Jack Wilshere. I expect Chambers to return, and I'm quite desperate for The Ox to sign a new contract.

Thereafter, what do the team need? And this depends on whether AW sticks with the current formation - a big if! The switch to a back three smacked of desperation. 

Firstly, for Cazorla to regain fitness (a veritable LANS). Then a replacement for Alexis - the quality of which will be determined by the European competition the club qualifies for - plus a left back (sorted, apparently), a genuine defensive midfielder, and an upgrade at centre forward. Not necessarily major surgery, as the footbal quality is there. I'm not putting up names at this point - I'm sure that we'll be sick of reading about them between now and July 31st.

What's really needed is a change in mentality and motivation. And how are the team going to get that from a man who has been in charge for 20 years, and who is stubborn enough to continue to refuse to change his coaching staff and methods? The opposite of 'If it ain't broke...'

So where is the Catalyst for Change? Over to you, Messrs Kroenke and Gazidis. As if...

What have we got to look forward to next year? Let's leave that until after Sunday, and until after the Cup Final. But M Wenger, if Arsenal finish 5th and lose to Chelsea, surely you can see that you've pushed the envelope too far? 

I no longer subscribe to the 'Be careful what you wish for' camp - I'll take my chances, frankly; the club and job are attractive enough to attract the right sort of coach, and then the overhaul can start.

Just to compete... wouldn't that be nice?

Toothless. Spineless. Rudderless.

Remember this photo? Of course you do.

It was taken on 25th April 2004. Arsenal had just won the League - clinching the title at the home of their local rivals, Tottenham Hotspur. Crowned not only Champions, but about to go through the season unbeaten. The Invincibles. Tottenham themselves were lagging far behind, as Arsenal and Manchester United dominated English football. Everything looked set fair for Arsenal to kick on and go on to even greater things over the next few years.

And now this, 13 years later almost to the day.

An Arsenal team outfought and outclassed at the same venue, languishing well back in 6th place as Tottenham battle for the title. Toothless. Spineless. And frankly rudderless. 

Compare the two sides. One properly coached; a team within which every player knows his job and knows how to exploit the weaknesses in the opposition. The other seemingly a collection of individuals chucked together, with no discernible plan nor tactic. Tottenham were different class in every respect, and from team selection to choice of tactics Wenger and his side were shown to be out of their depth. 

Branded a 'jazzer' (i.e. lacking in any discernable structure) when it comes to tactics by Phillipe Auclair, one can clearly see what he's driving at. The series of tactical cock-ups this season reached new depths on Sunday.  The non-selection of Holding and Welbeck was baffling, the choice to start with Gibbs and Giroud equally so. Why not put Alexis up top again? The poorly coached new defensive formation, leaving gaps an under 18 side could exploit, was a recipe for disaster. They got off light at 2-0!

It is said that success in football is cyclical, and whilst some of what has prevented Arsenal from continuing to dominate English football has been out of their hands, the club's reaction to the maelstrom of change going on around it over the intervening years has essentially been to ignore it. And right now what the majority of the fan base, and of football journalism and punditry, has been warning about for years is coming home to roost. By burying their heads in the sand, the Arsenal Board have been shown to be utterly negligent.

Since that Invincibles season, the landscape of Premier League football is much changed. The emergence of the oligarchs alongside vast sums of television money, coupled with Arsenal's stadium move, has had an impact on the ability to deliver on the apparent ambitions the club had (as voiced by Chief Executive Ivan Gazidis), but the plain fact of the matter is that as a football club Arsenal have lacked genuine ambition compared to their rivals in that time. The stadium debt is under control, yet the £200m+ in the Bank is not being used to buy players who will help the team kick on to success, but more to leverage the owner's business dealings elsewhere. A total scandal.

One could - if one so desired and in a perverse way - laud the loyalty displayed by and to Arsenal Wenger, but the unwillingness and inability of both Board and Manager to adapt and change to the new landscape has been plain for a number of years. Born, I might add, in no small measure out of complacency.

This year the stagnation has finally caught up with them. Where each and every one of their rivals has embraced change, Arsenal have fought against it, forging a lone furrow and working against all conceivable logic. It's like deciding to race alone down the far side of a racecourse when everyone else knows that the faster ground is up the stands rail.

Arsene Wenger has been in charge of the club for 22 years now. An inordinately long time. Back then, his main - some would say only - rival was the great Sir Alex Ferguson and his phenomenal Manchester United team. Arsenal had one target to aim at, and they hit it as often as not. Wenger revolutionised English football when he arrived, bringing nutritional and training ideas never before seen in this country. He was rightly celebrated for it, as it brought a good deal of success.

However, the stadium move (with the unfortunate Board disagreements which led to David Dein being relieved of his duties) meant financial constraints, and coincided with the arrival of the oligarchs and the 'financial doping' of Chelsea and latterly Manchester City. This is not news, of course.

On top of this, Manchester United have started to turn things round after inevitably suffering after Ferguson's retirement and Liverpool have now started to do the same after a far longer cycle. And now finally - after years of getting it horribly wrong - Tottenham have got the formula right too. So instead of having just one rival, Arsenal have no less than 5. Each and every one of these clubs continues to make advances, whilst Arsenal stand still and thereby fall behind. For Ferguson, now read Mourinho, Conte, Guardiola, Klopp and Pocchetino. Managers with fresh ideas and a willingness to embrace change. Arsenal stuck to Wenger; now seen as a dinosaur - and the meteorite has struck very firmly in 2016-17.

Tottenham Hotspur fans have been minding an ever-decreasing gap for years now. Whilst 22 years is a very long time, and as a statistic has been a source of much amusement for Arsenal fans, fortune and circumstance have favoured Arsenal on a number of those occasions and it had been clear for some time that the gap has been well and truly closing. This season, all of the chickens have come home to roost. Of course, its not all about finishing above Tottenham; it's about competing for the title and Arsenal have probably only managed to do that twice since 2004 - and it doesn't take a genius to understand why.

I mentioned it in a previous blog post, but for me the main culprit is not the Manager. Indeed, I feel sorry for him in many ways; hung out to dry by an owner and Board whose only interest appears to be the pursuit of more riches. The owner is a man with little or no sporting ambition, under whose ownership the club will continue to slip back. An owner who understands the game would have put Arsene out of his misery by now. An owner who understood the English psyche would have - if he had anything about him - taken his profit and sold out to somebody with sporting ambition. Yet he continues, like a vampire, to suck the very soul out of the club and its fans. You see, if I was forced to switched from Tesco to Sainsbury's it wouldn't make a huge difference to me. But football attracts a different type of Brand Loyalty. Thousands of season ticket holders - myself included - must be agonising over whether to renew for next season (and don't anyone dare accuse me of disloyalty to my club at this point!). The problem being that others will simply take our places...

Wenger himself has been left behind by tactical developments. He no longer has the tactical nous to compete with his peers, and after so long in the job the motivational skills have also gone. How many times have the players heard the same thing? How many more tactical disasters is he going to inflict on the team before the end of the season?

The players themselves can take their fair share of blame also. Many aren't good enough. Some are clearly going through the motions. The player who wears his heart most on his sleeve and works the hardest is likely to look at the club's lack of ambition and be the first in the queue out of the door in June. Dropping out of the Champions League places is going to make it far more difficult to attract top class talent. In short, this could be an extremely long exile for Arsenal. A massive power shift in North London.

So where do Arsenal go from here? Well, we can be pretty sure that there is no succession plan in place. The Board were happy for Wenger to carry on until he saw fit to retire. But surely that option is off the table now?

With every defeat, the calls for Wenger to go grow louder. Surely he must fall on his sword at the end of the season? Otherwise it's a recipe for more of the same next year - except that Arsenal will be competing with the likes of Everton and Southampton for 6th place next year, the way things are going. Many are past the 'be careful what you wish for' phase now. The job is attractive enough for an ambitious man to come in and start to revive the club. If that doesn't happen this summer then I fear it will be too late - we could be looking at a long, long time out of the elite places for this once-proud, but now embarrassed and tarnished club. And what makes me sad is to think about what might have been.

But credit where it's due. Congratulations, Tottenham Hotspur. You deserve it.