Tuesday 12 March 2024

Top Of The League, You Say?...


Well, I think we’ll take that, frankly. Top of the league with 10 games to go. The two results in which we were interested could not have gone any better. Lots of story lines, of course, but the bare facts speak for themselves and leave the top of the table looking very crowded indeed. But if Carlsberg did weekends...


Nonetheless, Arsenal are in charge of their own destiny now (Arsenal appear to have the hardest of the three sets of matches on paper; but, for what it's worth, I have all three sides winning 8 and drawing 2 of their final 10 matches. And you know what that means...).

Here's my view on Saturday's talking points:

Firstly, Brentford turned out to be an excellent dress rehearsal for Porto. With a defence wracked by injuries - and a further injury early on in the game - Brentford came to stay well-organised, to spoil, to shithouse, and to look to hit Arsenal on the break. They ought to be embarrassed by some of the histrionics they performed - the match lasted 105 minutes, but the ball was only in play for 49 of them - as they collapsed writhing on the floor on some sort of rotational basis almost from the first whistle. I've never seen so much cramp suffered by so many players over such a short period! From Zanka after 5 minutes, to Maupay after 103, it wasn't football. 

Perfectly understandable, of course. A flowing game would not have suited them, and it's a legitimate tactic to look to break up play as must as possible when outclassed. And they almost got a point out of it; although would have been more than they deserved on the balance of play. The twin threats of Toney and Wissa were/are quite a handful - especially when defending 2 vs 2 as Arsenal were for much of the game.

In that context, I found their response to Kai Havertz's alleged dive somewhat unpalatable. Sure, he made the most of whatever contact there was. But a second yellow? Really? And especially bearing in mind the two penalties that Arsenal could/should have been awarded for tugs on Trossard and Gabriel (amidst penalty area scenes that would be outlawed at times in a game of rugby!). 


And I for one don't appreciate the narrative created on the back of it. I was shocked to see the BBC's treatment of the Havertz incident on MOTD. Blown out of all proportion. There's a constant lack of willingness to praise Arsenal, and a desire to do them down - and if they can't find anything then they'll make something up. How nice it would be for the team to actually be given the credit it deserves!

Secondly, I want to talk about Aaron Ramsdale. Now, we all love the man. And he was on a hiding to nothing in this game. Yes, he made a mistake, and a bad one; I originally thought that Gabriel had given him a bit of a 'hospital pass', but he had time to clear the ball. He simply took too long to sort his feet out. Excellent work from Wissa, and very unfortunate for Ramsdale.


Yet he redeemed himself fully in the second half. Two excellent - one world class, in fact - saves prevented Arsenal from falling behind. The save from Toney's brilliant, improvised long-distance effort was magnificent. 


And the other, from Collins' header after the latter had escaped Kivior on a second ball from a set piece (something the coaching staff need to look at there, I think) was pretty fine too. It was wonderful to see the team spirit and camaraderie in the squad, supporting the keeper through his eventful evening.


This may well be the final time we see Ramsdale in an Arsenal shirt. And whilst it's now clear that Arteta did make the correct decision in upgrading, we must not lose sight of the job the guy has done for this team. By dint of number of memorable performances and saves last season, and of sheer force of personality, he helped turn Arsenal around. I wish him good fortune wherever he goes (until he comes up against Arsenal, of course).

The goalkeeping decision is something that we can now see that Arteta has got right. Signing Havertz. Signing Jorginho. Reverting to Trossard last season when the number one target drifted out of reach. Deciding to remove the likes of Aubameyang, Ozil, Mustafi and others from the squad. We doubted Arteta time and time again. Which only goes to show what we know about football. Mikel knows... And on a slight tangent, I wonder how Chelsea fans feel when they see Jorginho and Havertz - players they'd written off - performing so well in a red shirt. No more scavenging in 'Chelsea's bins' for the likes of David Luiz and Willian; these are two further strokes of Arteta genius.

Next, it's clear that this group of players is still developing, and can only get better. They're equipped for different roles in different scenarios. Look at the different roles that White, Rice and Havertz play for starters. Versatility and the ability to adjust in the heat of battle is crucial. White's two assists, and the fact that Arsenal scored two headed goals against a defence of some size/stature (all three of their goals against this opposition have come from headers, actually) show that they will do whatever it takes, however it takes to achieve it.

With the draw we craved the result of the titanic Liverpool/City clash on Sunday, the road is clear to concentrate on Porto this evening. If Martinelli remains unfit, I'd be very tempted to start Jesus. And with Partey and Zinchenko now on their way back, things might get very hot indeed for the Portuguese outfit.

Arsenal - and we fans of course - need to bring the fire. So they don't know what's hit them. Put pressure on their players, and on the referee, and progress to the quarter finals is within reach. After that, it's time for those international friendlies that we've all been missing so much... 

Followed by the big one on March 31st! Let's keep pushing. Players, coaching staff, and supporters alike. Let's get behind this group and help push them over the line. 

Exciting times. North London Forever. COYG!

Friday 8 March 2024

Statistics, Eh?!?


Arsenal's dismantling of Sheffield United on Monday evening meant a whole new set of statistical records were set; not just during the match, but reflecting the team's incredible run over the past 7 matches. If titles were won on paper, Arsenal would have this one wrapped up on all known indicators. 

My favourite stats from the night were:

  • William Saliba completed 167 passes (in itself an incredible number for a centre back) during the match. That's more than the entire Sheffield United team, who completed just 142 between them. Those 167 passes comfortably eclipsed the Arsenal record of 154, previously held by Santi Cazorla
  • Kai Havertz's goal was the 150,000th in English top flight football history. And Ben White's left-footed pile-driver was Arsenal's 10,000th competitive goal
  • The 11-0 aggregate over two matches against Sheffield United equalled Arsenal's previous Premier League record, which was achieved against Everton in 2004/5 and then against a hapless Derby County in 2007/8. And is one short of Manchester City's 12-0 record, achieved against Watford. As an aside, I have happy memories of Arsenal facing Everton on or around the final game of the season (remember 'It's Tony Adams, put through by Steve Bould. Would you believe it?!? That sums it all up!'). I recall a 7-0, a 4-3 and a 5-1. Not an omen, but our final game of the season is... home to Everton...
  • The result was Arsenal's third consecutive 5+ goal away win. Which is as remarkable as is the fact that it was also United's third consecutive 5+ goal defeat! They are doomed
  • Arsenal were three goals up in 15 minutes, and 5 in 39. No wonder the home sections were half empty by half time
  • Waka waka. Kai Havertz scored -and assisted - again. Oh we of little faith! As it turns out, Mikel knows...

I could go on. But - and I'll, as I usually do, preface this by pointing out that Sheffield United are terrible - this was no flash in the pan. Since their mini-break in Dubai, and with the bizarre exception of the defeat in Portugal, Arsenal have been blowing far better sides than this lot away. Newcastle are no mugs, yet they didn't have a sniff. Nobody goes to the London Stadium and hits 6. Liverpool supporters will be the first to admit that they were well beaten.

This side currently has something of the feel of The Invincibles. Now, they've clearly got a hell of a way to go to emulate that side (I'm not sure that it's even possible these days if the great Manchester City haven't achieved it), but just to see them in the tunnel prior to the game would have sent shivers up Sheffield spines. A steely look, and a little nod - both reminiscent of the magnificent Vieira-led team of 2003/4 - were enough to put the opposition away before the match had even started. And it was all over as contest in no time, as we all saw.


A goals record of 31-3 over the past 7 games is amazing. And the underlying stats reinforce the results. xG is 19, so they're over-performing that by miles (I wrote only a few weeks ago that Arsenal were under-performing against xG, and just wait until that changes - I am a prophet!)

More importantly, xGA (expected goals against) over the 7 games is 1.97 - so they're underperforming that by actually having let three goals in - but the nearest team to the Gunners, Manchester City's, comparative xGA is close to 7! Liverpool's is 10. Newcastle's is over 20! And it's this that could make the difference by the end of the season.

No team wins a title with a poor defence. Statistically, Arsenal's is the best in the division. Fewest shots on target conceded. Fewest goals conceded. Lowest xGA. And that bodes well. Provided that... the centre halves stay fit, and that Arteta can be allowed some rotation. Zinchenko, Tomiyasu and even Timber should be making it back to fitness in turn as the season builds to a climax, which will all help. Not that young Kivior isn't doing a remarkable job at left back at the moment.

As for those who'd been clamouring for a striker... eat your words! Goals are being shared all over the pitch. The team looks settled, and is playing with great belief, confidence and verve. Arteta seems to have the mix just right at the moment. But there's a long way to go yet.

Because... all of these stats are on paper. The title will - I'm pretty sure - be decided on grass, and moments may be vital. Trends are one thing, but it only takes a mometary lapse for things to go awry. As Thierry Henry pointed out on Sky Sports on Monday evening, whilst Arsenal's defensive stats are enviable, they maybe do have a weakness. Much like Manchester City, they have a propensity to concede to the first shot on target (although recently those have been few and far between). And the weakness is this, for both sides: they are intent on dominating possession, and on pushing up and strangling the opposition. But if the press is beaten, they can find themselves wide open to a swift break. Yin and yang; I'd risk it. After all, Saliba has fantastic recovery pace, but before that's needed they've got to get past Rice and Gabriel. All of which is going to make the game at The Etihad fascinating.

Arsenal are playing the most scintillating football in Europe at the moment, but that will count for nothing if they get knocked out of their stride. I'm not too worried about an injury-ravaged Brentford, who they ought to shrug aside. But they need to carry the performance through to Porto on Tuesday. Failure to qualify for the last 8 of the Champions League would be sure to hit their confidence (qualification will lead to fixture congestion, but that's the price of success). Tuesday will be an entirely different type of game - Porto will try every trick in the book - but there's a good chance that they may find themselves getting blown away at a fired-up Emirates Stadium.

After Porto, there's another of those hideous interlulls... and then Manchester City away! We'll know more about the size of the task in hand by the time City have finished their clash with Liverpool, but we'll know everything about it by the evening of March 31st. 

Meantime, let's see the momentum spill over into each game, take each one as it comes, and we shall see. This feels different to last season, when injuries were already starting to deplete the squad. What Monday's scoreline did was mean a full half for Fabio Vieira, and half an hour from Gabriel Jesus, as well as the lesser-spotted Thomas Partey (who looked rusty, but still showed flashes of what makes him such an important piece in the jigsaw). An entirely different scenario to last season.

Nonetheless, the task is enormous. Arsenal are still only in third place, with two behemoths ahead of them; players and managers who have been there, and done it. And whilst I feel that Liverpool's 'luck' may run out (there's a similar feel to what they're doing to what Arsenal did in the first par tof last season; and despite injuries their recent fixtures haven't been taxing in any case) at any minute, I'd rather not contemplate dealing with City until I have to. 

Arsenal remain the third youngest squad in the Premier League, so there's surely plenty to come from them over the next few years. But they currently look ready to step up, and this does feel like a great opportunity. 10 more matches. That's all. It has to be Full Steam Ahead. 

COYG!