A quick review of the draw with Palace to start off. Followed by a tactical analysis of the big game on Tuesday. If you don't want to read the Palace review - ancient history and all that - then scroll down to the photo of Emirates Stadium at night.
Just a few days after singing the praises of an Arsenal side who looked to have elevated themselves mentally following victory in the Santiago Bernebeu, we need to reflect on a sloppy performance at home to Crystal Palace that indicates that - however great a side one may purport to be - there is no escape from the need to work hard. Following on from two fixtures against Real Madrid where we saw Arsenal players run further and harder than their opponents, we saw them drop those levels; and pay the price for it. For all that Crystal Palace had an FA Cup semi final at the weekend, it was clear from very early on that, despite having literally nothing to play for in terms of the Premier League, their players wanted it more.
Perhaps, having scored very early - Kivior's header from no fewer than 12 yards had Henderson rooted to his line - from yet another set-piece (olé! olé!) - Arsenal thought that it was going to be easy. But that was not the case, as Palace pressed in a manner that we've not seen from too many other sides this season. They hunted Arsenal down in packs, hustled them into errors, and were never out of the game at any stage.
To be frank, it was clear where Arteta's priorities lay as - whilst Saka's knock in the previous game may have precluded him from starting this match - the selection of the utterly ineffective Sterling told a very clear story. With Merino and White both sidelined, the team pretty much picked itself. But Arsenal were only in second gear - not wanting to exert themselves too much with the Premier League long gone and a massive game less than a week away - and paid the price. Eze's stunning volley from the edge of the penalty area following a corner levelled things up midway through the first half. Eze... now there's one fine footballer.
Trossard again (olé! olé!) as Arsenal took the lead again just before half time. A fine finish from the edge of the penalty area, with a slight deflection wrong-footing Henderson. And that was a relief; not least because it felt a little undeserved, with Palace clearly having put in more effort throughout. As far as Leo is concerned, however, that made 4 goals in 4 PL matches as - even with Partey suspended for Tuesday - he is making a decent shout for a semi final start.
I'm going to chuck in another piece of PGMOL controversy here before I go on. A scooped pass from Odegaard saw Timber - apparently in an offside position - nudge the ball back from the bye-line into the 6-yard box, where Martinelli tapped in from around a foot out. A drawn-out (of course) VAR check for offside, and as it turns out Timber was ok. But, in what looked like a piece of guesswork from the VAR, the goal was ruled out for the ball being out of play. And I really don't think that it was. I still remember the controversy at Newcastle a couple of years ago, so this was further irritation with the incompetence of officialdom.
Saka, who had replaced Sterling but who found even himself almost completely sidelined throughout the half hour he played as he saw very little of the ball, nonetheless had a chance to sew up the points from a Martinelli cross, but Henderson saved well. And then - to add to the catalogue of dropped points due to officiating this season - Mateta equalised. I'm stretching things, of course, because this was completely down to a mistake from Saliba - a second one leading to a goal in three matches from the generally immaculate Frenchman, who must cut this out. I imagine that he's probably feeling fatigued at this stage of the season - now with the extra mental strain of babysitting Kivior - but this isn't what we've come to expect. Saliba's misplaced pass let in Mateta, who cleverly lobbed Raya - a long way out of his goal as usual - from 25 yards. Annoying all round, and yet another draw to add to the tally. Although Arsenal should, technically, have been 3-1 up and out of sight at that point if the officials had done their job properly instead of guessing.
Now Mateta is an interesting one. Lacking the profile of the more talked-about centre forwards in Europe, he is vastly improved this season, and is a constant threat to defenders. He is big (I mean, really big!), strong and not lacking in pace. Nor skill. A dark horse to be picked up by a bigger club, perhaps?; along with Eze and Wharton - Palace's three best players. I rather like him.
So two more points dropped; leaving Liverpool with the simple task of not losing to Tottenham in order to confirm their title; and leaving all those associated with Arsenal to wonder about what might have been. Say no more... but further taunts from the unbelievably infuriating Palace fans of 'Second again - olé! olé!' rang hollow when, once again with a 'lesser' club, one looks at their PL position. Nonetheless, I really hope that they win the FA Cup, which would be the first big trophy of their history.
Second place is not quite sorted, so Arsenal must keep half an eye on that. But the biggest game of the season so far is almost upon us. PSG in the Champions League semi final. And, if my analysis is correct, this could be a decent match-up for Arsenal. Or a disaster...
Let's have a look at the opposition.
PSG are a completely different outfit to the team that Arsenal beat comfortably in the group stages in the autumn. Similar personnel, but whilst Luis Enrique was searching for answers back then, he has since mostly found them. They were awesome against Liverpool in their last 16 match-up - the aggregate scoreline didn't come close to reflecting their superiority - but they had a surprising struggle against Aston Villa in the quarter finals. Particularly in the latter stages of the second leg, where Villa put them under considerable pressure. And this is perhaps where Arteta will look to exploit weakness.
Enrique's tweaks eventually led him to start Dembélé as his 'false 9', with Barcola and Doué on the flanks. The addition of the exciting Kvaratskhelia in January added a further threat - he looks like a very good player. But just as key was the decision to let the leash off of left back Nuno Mendes, who joins his right-sided counterpart Hakimi as dual attacking threats; thus continually overloading opposing defences. With Dembélé shifting out wide, the full backs run forward and infield and dovetail with their wingers. It's difficult for defenders to see the patterns. With three skilful midfielders backing them up, they generally dominate the ball and force opponents back.
But... it's generally pretty easy in Ligue Un. Not quite so in the Champions League. And to my eye PSG's attacking patterns have the capability to offer opportunities for Arsenal. Win the ball back. Break the press. Because in transition Arsenal can expose them.
On the assumption that Arteta goes down the 'safe' route of dropping Rice into the 'number 6' role, and uses Merino and Odegaard as twin '8s', then I can see some interesting scenarios. Rice devours the ground and anticipates well, and whilst he lacks the cuteness in tight spaces of Partey or even Lewis-Skelly (I'll come back to him) he has the power to dominate his counterparts; as he did to Bellingham in the previous round. Freeing the ball to Merino - whose cute one-touch passing can be a real asset - or Odegaard - who is starting to carry the ball more effectively and decisively now that his mate is back in the side - can help break past/through the PSG midfield and give opportunities to the speedy Martinelli and the mercurial Saka. With Trossard dropping deep and perhaps taking a centre half with him, and with the PSG full backs perhaps over-committing, then I see exciting possibilities.
Whether you are watching or going to the game, expect to see PSG have more of the ball than Arsenal. I expect a mid-block from Arteta, and an attempt to 'rope a dope' the French side. Mikel will surely rely on his team's defensive solidity, and look to draw PSG on. Expect it to be cagey, and a game of 'transitions'. It won't be 'blood and thunder' - at least not to start with. The key will be not to let the wingers in behind, and not to allow the full backs to find space between Arsenal's defenders.
For me, a key battle will be between Kvaratskhelia and Timber. The winger can be devastating off of either foot, but he will be up against possibly the best defensive full back in world football. Saka will obviously be dropping back to help too, and Rice must hold his central position as much as possible.
On the other side of the field, it will be interesting to see whether Arteta gives MLS license to 'invert'; the issue being whether this is likely to expose Kivior to Doué (who I'd imagine will start ahead of Barcola). Martinelli can be very important here, but perhaps with Rice's physical capabilities - greater than Partey's, for sure - maybe Arteta will ask MLS to rein himself back a little.
One area where Arsenal can dominate is at set pieces. PSG aren't the tallest or most physical of sides, and Donnarumma - whilst a world-class shot stopper - is not so hot on crosses. Corners and free kicks in the PSG final third may be key. Watch out for them.
Both sides have fallen away domestically recently. Arsenal's league challenge has been dying for weeks (and was finally put out of its misery on Sunday). PSG sewed up the title long ago, but were looking to go Invincible. They failed miserably in that quest on Friday, going down 3-1 at home to Nice in a game that they absolutely dominated. That may well end up as a template for the second leg for Arteta.
From my point of view, if Arsenal can come out of the first leg with any lead - no matter how slender - then I see the team being capable of defending it in the Parc Des Princes next week. A draw wouldn't be a complete disaster, but defeat may be. Either way, it's going to be a fascinating tactical battle between two coaches who learnt much as youngsters at La Masia. Both clubs - perennial Champions League under-achievers over the past 20 years - can spy a shot at destiny. PSG must be hurt from years of painful and embarrassing knockout defeats, and Arsenal - now back where they belong - must shrug aside thoughts of all those painful exits at the hands of Barcelona and Bayern. One of them will create their own history over the next 8 days - let's hope and pray that it's Arsenal.
If you're going tonight, be in your seat early. By all accounts it'll be worth it!
Oh - and it's probably pointless mentioning it here, but I'll have a go. The second leg falls on my 65th birthday. I'd love to spend it in Paris; so if you hear of a spare?...
Right then. COYG!!!