On The Brink

So, are we perhaps on for another in the long-running series of The Great Escape? And, if we are, what does it mean for the future?

First things first: we are down to the wire here. There is no room for error. Arsenal need to win, and then get some help from already relegated Middlesbrough (I'm discounting sufficient help from Watford, who'd need to thrash Manchester City) - but we must do our job first. Fortunately, Everton have absolutely nothing to play for, so that's hopeful, but I don't rate Middlesbrough's chances very highly.

We've been here before, of course, with our fate out of our hands, but Lasagnegate was an unrepeatable event, and it's not Tottenham who we're relying on to fall apart this year.

So let's surmise what finishing inside or outside the Top 4 might mean going forward:

Firstly, unless the rumours of a massive split between the Board and the Manager over the (proposed/alleged) Director of Football position are true, it looks like he will be signing a new contract. Surely his last one!?! But even with their apparent disconnect from the current reality, the hierarchy will know that this season has surely been a 'Catalyst for Change' and plans - which almost assuredly haven't yet been made - will be put in place for the massive transition job ahead.

What more and more fans are hoping for is frankly unlikely to take place this summer; the Board seem to be too distanced from reality (perhaps the 20,000 empty seats for the Sunderland match will get them thinking a bit). My view is simply that Arsene has taken the club as far as he can, and that for want of a better expression 'A change is as good as a rest'. Irrespective of whichever competition they qualify for. Surely, with the resources they have, Arsenal should be putting up some sort of a title challenge at some point - I actually don't remember the last time they did.

If it's Champions League, it will be a sporting miracle. And at that point there will be another opportunity to kick on; to use the so-called 'War Chest'. Although to be fair, £90m+ in transfer fees was spent last summer, and it hasn't helped. Thoughts, Arsene?...

On the one hand, the recent upsurge in results is very commendable, but previous abject defeats to Watford, West Bromwich Albion and Crystal Palace tell a totally different story. Which Arsenal is the real one? And why do we seem to be asking this question every single year?

And if it's Europa League, my personal opinion is that the game of Russian Roulette has finally backfired, and it will put the club back for years - hopefully considerably nearer what Manchester United have been through than what Liverpool have suffered. But the speed of transition will be in the hands of Silent Stan (need I say more?). Conceivably, there could be no hope for an imminent recovery. After all, which top player would be attracted enough to Arsenal to come, without Champions League football? Arsenal are not Manchester United. For the first time I can remember, Tottenham looks a more attractive destination. Ouch!

Initially, what does it mean for player retention and recruitment over the summer? Going through the squad, I would suggest that a lot of dead wood needs to be cut away. Here's my list from the current first team squad list of 'Expendables' and players likely to leave of their own volition:

Expendables:
Debuchy, Gibbs, Jenkinson, Coquelin, Sanogo, Campbell, Akpom

Other likely departures:
Ospina, Perez, Alexis Sanchez (sobs...)

I think that Alexis will go, irrespective of Champions League qualification. He must think that he can do better than stay at Arsenal - no matter how much money they throw at him - and one would tend to agree. This will leave a massive hole in the team; extremely difficult to fill. The thought fills me with dread; for all the dreadful ball-retention stats, he is the beating heart of the team. I'd offer him whatever he wants, and then a bit more, to stay.

On the other hand, I expect Ozil to stay. It's all very cosy between him and Wenger; if he's fit, he starts. And at his best I love him; but he has a way to go to get back to that (but on the other hand hit the button and replay that goal against Ludogorets... any excuse to watch it again, as far as I'm concerned).

Of the rest of the squad, I'd personally not be the remotest upset to see Gabriel and Walcott (for all his goals this season, it's enough now - especially after his 'They wanted it more' interview following the Palace defeat - moved on, and I think that unfortunately the game appears up for Jack Wilshere. I expect Chambers to return, and I'm quite desperate for The Ox to sign a new contract.

Thereafter, what do the team need? And this depends on whether AW sticks with the current formation - a big if! The switch to a back three smacked of desperation. 

Firstly, for Cazorla to regain fitness (a veritable LANS). Then a replacement for Alexis - the quality of which will be determined by the European competition the club qualifies for - plus a left back (sorted, apparently), a genuine defensive midfielder, and an upgrade at centre forward. Not necessarily major surgery, as the footbal quality is there. I'm not putting up names at this point - I'm sure that we'll be sick of reading about them between now and July 31st.

What's really needed is a change in mentality and motivation. And how are the team going to get that from a man who has been in charge for 20 years, and who is stubborn enough to continue to refuse to change his coaching staff and methods? The opposite of 'If it ain't broke...'

So where is the Catalyst for Change? Over to you, Messrs Kroenke and Gazidis. As if...

What have we got to look forward to next year? Let's leave that until after Sunday, and until after the Cup Final. But M Wenger, if Arsenal finish 5th and lose to Chelsea, surely you can see that you've pushed the envelope too far? 

I no longer subscribe to the 'Be careful what you wish for' camp - I'll take my chances, frankly; the club and job are attractive enough to attract the right sort of coach, and then the overhaul can start.

Just to compete... wouldn't that be nice?