Wednesday 29 July 2020

Watford review and Cup Final preview

Many people are doing their end-of-season reviews this week, but I'm going to save that until next week, when we have a full picture of this utter sh*tshow of a Premier League season. At least we'll be able to put the final punctuation mark/emoji on it, based on the result of Saturday's FA Cup Final.

So for the meantime I'll stick to a review of the final Premier League game of the season, and a preview of the massive game on Saturday.

So it's to the Watford game first. Now, Watford aren't very good, and that's why they ended up going down, but despite going into a 3-0 lead it looked to me as if Arsenal were doing their very best to help them stay up (having initially put them in real trouble by losing to Villa previously). Gifted no less than three goals, Arsenal nonetheless looked almost as sluggish and disinterested in this game as they had at Villa Park - in stark contrast to the diligent performances against Liverpool and (especially) Manchester City the previous week. If they display this attitude against Chelsea on Saturday, they will be torn to pieces!

So to the award of the penalty for the first goal. It was a rash challenge by Dawson, and Mike Dean's decision to wave play on was rightly overruled by VAR. Now some are looking at Dean's reaction to having his decision overturned and claiming that he was disappointed to have to award a penalty to Arsenal (and we've seen similar reactions from him before) - left, 'celebrating' Saha's goal at The Emirates; right, disappointed at overrule:


However, I look at it another way; he likes to play advantage, but is nothing like as good a referee as he thinks he is, and as a result makes high profile mistakes. So he is in fact 'celebrating' that he allowed play to continue on the left, and merely 'expressing disappointment' that he made a wrong decision on the right. Therefore, I will go against the flow and give him the benefit of the doubt. Of course, he couldn't wait to give a penalty against David Luiz in the second half - and that wasn't totally clear cut for me - but he was at least decisive.

However, there is no hiding from this table, which shows the number of penalties awarded to each Premier League club throughout the season, against the number of touches made in the opponent's penalty area:

It's plain for all to see, and I do not need to comment further. Except to reiterate that there is, of course, no anti-Arsenal conspiracy...

Following Tierney's deflected effort for 2-0, Aubamayang scored his second with a smart overhead kick to close to within one goal of the Golden Boot for a second successive season, but despite Nketiah's attempt to tee up his hat-trick he ended up one short. In a side shorn of a genuinely creative midfielder in the continuing absence of Ozil, and playing from the left, 22 goals is nonetheless a phenomenal return. 

At 3-0 you'd have thought it would all be plain sailing, but Arsenal contrived to not just let Watford back into the game, but almost to allow them to help themselves to all three points. They got two goals back, and had numerous other chances to level and go ahead; Martinez's save from Welbeck's flick was quite exceptional.

On the whole, once again, this was totally inexcusable on the effort/mental side; and especially, as I have mentioned, when put up agaiinst the semi-final performance.

So Watford are down, and as a very local club to me I feel sorry for their fans - indeed, some of my best friends are Watford fans. Deeney's cojones weren't quite big enough for the job, obviously. But this is an Arsenal blog, so we'll stick to the main subject and move on to Saturday.

Of course, we are expecting - and likely - to see an entirely different Arsenal performance at Wembley. The difference between playing the last two opponents and Chelsea is that we should expect to play in a completely different way. Against Villa, Arsenal could not cope with the 'low block' and got caught on the breakaway. Against Watford, it was like watching a basketball match. I think that we can expect to see something like the pattern of the City semi-final, with Chelsea dominting possession and Arsenal looking to defend and then hit them hard with pace on the break.

It's clear to me that this can be a good match-up for Arsenal. Chelsea's strength is clearly going forward; Pulisic is in amazing form and Giroud is doing his job extremely well. Plus we'll need to look out for Willian's delivery and the subtleties of Mount or Barkley from midfield. I'd expect to see both sides playing 3-4-3 formations, and it's that - with the defensive weaknesses of Chelsea's wing backs - which can work in Arsenal's favour - providing they keep things tight. Pepe owes us a proper performance, and in Marcos Alonso he probably has the perfect opponent.

I see Arsenal lining up as follows:
Martinez
Holding-Luiz-Tierney
Bellerin-Ceballos-Xhaka-Saka
Aubameyang-Lacazette-Pepe
and that's probably currently Arteta's best XI. Thereafter, it'll be down to attitude and commitment, and I'd hope and expect to see something more akin to the one demonstrated against Manchester City than the poor subsequent efforts. And if we see that, then Arsenal have a chance. 

I didn't expect Arsenal to reach the Final, but now they have the optimist in me is going for a narrow Arsenal win. All available extremities will be crossed, anyway.

And of course this game is absolutely critical as far as next season is concerned. The difference between winning and losing will be reflected in a number of areas:
  • Aubameyang stay or go
  • Europa League or no Europa League
  • Extra cash in the Bank - and the prospect of Europe - helping to attract new players
  • Forcing Tottenham to go through Europa League qualifying
So it's not just about the game.

I'd just like to finish by saying: Manchester United, Chelsea and Tottenham, we see you. All that mockery of Arsene Wenger and Arsenal for claiming that a Champions League spot was like a trophy... and then - United and Chelsea celebrating Champions League qualification exactly like it was a trophy, and the hypocritical Mourinho dancing about on the pitch with his playing staff following their 'thrilling' 1-1 draw at Crystal Place. As I say, we see you.

And as for Harry Kane; 27 years old yesterday, and quite rightly lauded for his goal-scoring prowess. But with no trophies to show for it. Surely he must leave for a big club to get the rewards he deserves?

Until next week's Season Review. Stay Alert and Safe, please. Come On You Reds!




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