Too Good To Go Down?

Well, Arsenal reached a new low yesterday in 1-0 defeat to Burnley, but there is no indication that this is as low as they can go. In the next three weeks they face Southampton (currently sitting third in the table), Everton (who have just beaten Chelsea), Manchester City in the Carabao Cup and then Chelsea themselves, before two 'relegation six-pointers' at Brighton and West Bromwich Albion). From where will the next goal - let alone point - come?

We know that success in football is cyclical - Liverpool have taken a long time to get back to where they were in the late 80s and even early 2000s, and the likes of Newcastle and That Lot still wait..., but it's also worth bearing in mind that Manchester United were relegated in 1973 (they came straight back up again) -  ditto That Lot in 1977 and Chelsea in 1988.  And Manchester City sunk as low as the equivalent of League One in 1998. 

So no club has a divine right to stay in the Premier League, and the smug smiles of Arsenal fans on the back of 95 years of unbroken presence in the top division have been very firmly wiped away. To think that it was only 17 seasons ago that the side went unbeaten throughout an entire season, and 15 since they unluckily lost a Champions League Final. What a scandalous fall from grace this is, and the club are an absolute laughing stock now.

So let's analyse what went wrong against Burnley. And I'll start with the selection. For Arteta to proclaim that 'everybody starts level', and to laud the youngsters' performances and results in the Europa League, and then to start almost exactly the same side as last weekend (Elneny for the injured Partey), sends completely the wrong signals. He continues to expect players who let him down week after week after week to suddenly click and come good; but there is little or no evidence to back that up. As I said last week, changes need to be made in order to change the fortunes of the team, and yet he sticks with Bellerin, Willian, Xhaka (I'll come back to him, I assure you!) and with Lacazette in the 'number 10' role. Admittedly, he was slightly stymied by the enforced absences of Pepe (suspended) and Nelson (head injury), but there was plenty he could have done.

Graham Souness said post-match that he feels that only three of that side deserve to be in an Arsenal side, but that's a bit harsh - I'd let Leno (from what I saw on Thursday, Runarsson is nowhere near ready), Tierney, Holding (not his fault yesterday or last week), Gabriel, Saka and Aubameyang keep their places and that's 6 - but I'd happily sling the other 5 out of the side with no compunction whatsoever. 

But the thing is, Arsenal didn't play that badly - just as they didn't last weekend. At least at face value, they didn't. It's clear that the reason for all the crosses is Arteta's lack of faith that anybody can make the sort of defence-splitting passes of which Ozil is capable (to think that Lacazette is the answer defies belief, frankly), but it's a crude and low percentage form of attack. And yet, despite that, Arsenal created enough chances in the first hour or so to have won many games, if they'd have had a little more luck or been more clinical. Lacazette and Aubameyang (both twice) Saka, Holding, Tierney and Bellerin all had a clear sight of goal but failed to find the net. Unfortunately, I can see Arteta looking back and thinking the same thing, and then picking almost an identical side on Wednesday (for all that Xhaka and Bellerin are suspended for the match). 

Burnley, by contrast, had just one opportunity in the first hour. Holding was drawn out wide, a cross came in and Gabriel stepped up instead of staying with his man to leave Wood with a decent heading opportunity, which he fluffed badly.

And so in the end naivete and a lack of confidence - plus rank brainlessness - did for Arsenal once more. Personnel, playing system and mindset need to change - and quickly! Could a few youngsters do any worse than this?

And it all starts going wrong in midfield. There is little to no creativity in there with Xhaka and Elneny as the pair, but to then watch Xhaka's movement and what it does to the rest of the side is painful. So... Tierney goes forward, Xhaka rotates back into the left-sided central defender position to cover - thus emptying the midfield - and in doing so forces the 'number 10' (yesterday it was Lacazette) to come far too deep in order to receive the ball. Thus there is no way to transition properly - apart from the low percentage method down the wings. To add into that the ineffectiveness of the right hand side (Bellerin and Willian were both poor again yesterday) and what have they got to offer as an attacking force?

What is clearly needed is somebody in the midfield with the ability to carry the ball forward and to make a different type of pass. And in the continued absence of Ozil at least Ceballos gives something of an option, as does Willock, Saka or even the untested Smith Rowe. But Arteta continues to stick with Xhaka and Elneny, and I really cannot fathom why. Certainly, Ceballos absolutely must start on Wednesday.

And so to Granit Xhaka... we all know the history; the sendings-off, the disgraceful strop a year ago against Crystal Palace, the high number of clumsy fouls committed every week - yet this time he's gone a(nother) step too far. At a time when Arsenal were in complete ascendancy - in fact, I had tweeted less than a minute before that I felt that it was 'surely only a matter of time' - and had been slightly unlucky not to have been ahead at that point after a fast start to the second half, when he firstly made a trademark body check on McNeil and then for no good reason whatsoever grabbed at Westwood's throat. Inevitably, following a VAR check, he was given his marching orders and the game changed completely. For me, this is the last of many last chances for Xhaka. He adds little to the team and takes a lot away from it, and if the rumours are true that he is wanted in Italy then I'll happily drive him to Heathrow on January 1st.

And there were only two incidents in the rest of the game worth reporting. Firstly, a bizarre piece of 'marking' from Elneny at a corner for which he too was lucky not to be sent off, and then Aubameyang's unfortunate flicked header into his own net - the first goal all season conceded from a set-piece, and entirely the wrong way for Auba to break his goal drought. And that was that... Arsenal never looked like getting back into the game from the moment Xhaka walked, and certainly after the goal.

So now what? Well, I'm not privy to what goes on at London Colney, but this is the side I'd pick for Wednesday:

Leno

Cedric, Holding, Gabriel, Tierney

Maitland-Niles, Ceballos, Willock

Pepe, Aubameyang, Saka

But is Arteta's job safe now? Well, I would think that he has plenty of credit in the bank because of the FA Cup win and is surely therefore in no imminent danger, but he must start doing things differently now. As Einstein famously said, the definition of madness is doing the same thing again and again, yet expecting a different result. How apt.

I'm 'fortunate' to have won tickets in the ballot to attend on Wednesday. Whilst it's wonderful to be back watching live football, and I'm excited to be doing that, I can hardly say that I'm looking forward to it.

Anyway, I'll be back with you on Thursday. I'm not optimistic, but hope is still just about triumphing over expectation.