I've been up since around 3.30am. But let's just makes things clear here; I'm not nervous.
Something other than a mere football match must clearly be bothering me. It's just that I can't quite put my finger on what it is... Anyway, I'll just get a few things in writing, and see if that helps.
Firstly, despite 4 wins in a row I don't think that anybody can accuse Arsenal of being in great form. Three successive defeats prior to that may have been harsh - and oh, what would we give for a couple of points from those games! - but they've had their moments of concern in each of those 4 matches. Conceding so soon after taking the lead twice against Chelsea, and once against both United and West Ham, made for difficult viewing. Add the 'sliding doors' moment that was Bruno Fernandes' penalty miss. Followed by the inexplicably painful final 20 minutes against a 10-man Leeds United who should have been put to bed well beforehand.
Talking of the Leeds game, I have to take some responsibility here. First for something good, and then for something quite bad. Two 'assists', technically.
Any time an opposing defender at Emirates Stadium makes a back pass that is heading between the goal posts I shout 'Leave it!' Now, the goalkeeper can't hear it - I'm at least 50 yards away and in a crowd of 60,000 people - and all it really does is annoy the people around me (although they've heard it hundreds of times and therefore now ignore it). Yet this time... Meslier makes the mistake, Eddie nips in, and Marksy takes the credit and the 'assist'. As I pointed out to all and sundry at the time...
But then... as Leeds prepared to take their first corner of the game I pointed out to my daughter sitting beside me that Arsenal had not let in a goal all season directly from a corner; from no less than 188 attempts. Cue Llorente's stunning volley, and a volley of abuse from my offspring. Well deserved it was too.
By which time, of course, Arsenal should have been well out of sight. 2-0 up in no time, Leeds a man down - crazy challenge from Ayling, by the way - and with a host of chances to be at least 5 goals ahead. In my opinion Arsenal started relaxing - which you simply cannot do - and paid the price for it. And of course it could have been worse - those last 20 minutes were painful, as were the latter stages at West Ham - but the points were bagged and that was that.
Which left Arsenal 4 points clear of Tottenham, with just three games to go. As you know, the first of those is of course the NLD. But I'm not nervous...
Whether Tottenham had drawn or lost at Anfield on Saturday night was immaterial, really (a thumping loss would of course have been considerably more preferable). Just as long as they didn't do the unthinkable and do to Liverpool what they'd done twice to Manchester City this season. Extraordinary, in fact, that they've managed to amass no less than 8 points out of 12 in matches against those two sides this season, yet still find themselves 'languishing' in fifth spot. It's a function of the Conte's 'Italian' methodology, I guess, that they're much better on the counter-attack than when they have to take the game to their opponents.
Which leads me on to a preview of the game. And there are several aspects to it that bear a bit of discussion.
Firstly, there's the question of how much Tottenham will be motivated by the match having been called off on its original date due to Arsenal taking maximum advantage of the Premier League's Covid regulations. Probably a bit of a red herring - for all the outrage at the time - and here we are now in any case. There are surely more important motivating factors than that, I'd have thought.
From their point of view, team selection is easy. We've not heard about any new injury concerns in their camp, so they'll surely line up as they've done for most of this year. They have issues at wing back, however, and these are areas that I'm sure that Arteta will be looking to target.
The news from the Arsenal camp is of course a little more worrying. Already without Partey and Tierney - and any solution that Arteta can muster to the latter's continued absence is at the very least imperfect, with Tomiyasu looking uncomfortable at times at left back on Sunday (but still surely the best alternative), there are doubts as to whether Ben White is ready to step back into the side. And also some concerns about Bukayo Saka. Both of these two must surely be well inside Arsene Wenger's famous 'red zone' on fatigue levels.
So it's complete guess work as to how Arsenal will line up. If White is fit, Arteta has to decide whether to slot him back in alongside Gabriel - thus leaving the option of bringing Holding on late to shore up the defences - or to match Tottenham's formation up, as he did at Stamford Bridge.
There are two deciding factors to weigh up here. Adding a defender means losing an attacker. Obviously. But if Saka isn't fit to start, for me it's a 'no brainer' and that's what he should do. After all, Arsenal don't need to win this game; a draw would more than suffice. If Saka is fit to start, then perhaps stick to a four. Because they have to attack, and Arsenal's forward line has dynamic capabilities in transition and on the counter-attack. Interesting...
Of course, in Kane and Son - the most successful combination for combined goals and assists in Premier League history (which by the way is Not A Trophy!) - Tottenham possess a massive threat. But the key is to force them to play in front of our defence. If they get in behind, they are frankly deadly. Therefore the key is 'What we have; we hold'. And what we have at kick-off is a point.
Of course, they do have clear weaknesses, as I mentioned. Sessgnon is much better going forward than defending. And Emerson Royal is simply not very good; I'd be expecting Martinelli to inflict some damage on him. In midfield, Xhaka and Elneny should match up fairly well against Hojbjerg and Bentancur. But a key tactical factor will be how Arteta chooses to deal with Kane dropping onto midfield. Does he let him go and stay solidly behind the ball, or does he detail somebody to track him? We shall see.
For what it's worth, I've not spoken to a single Tottenham fan over the last week who is confident of victory this evening. But that, of course, makes no difference at all to what happens later. It's not just about bragging rights; there's so much more at stake.
Either way, this is massive. For all that Arsenal's fate will remain in their own hands even if they lose, I'd much prefer Tottenham's final two games to Arsenal's. The visit to Newcastle next weekend might be very tricky. But I wouldn't expect anything less than victory over an Everton side who firstly aren't very good - they managed to fail to beat Watford last night, after all - and secondly may actually be safe by the time they walk out onto the Emirates pitch on May 22nd.
Anyway, it's one game at a time. For some it's very much 'squeaky bum time'. But I'm not nervous.
It could even be St Totteringham's Day today, for all we know. I'm not banking on that, but... COYG!
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