Wednesday 4 January 2023

New Year's Resolution - Believe!


So - victory at Brighton and a hard-fought draw against Newcastle to follow victory over West Ham. Actually, I'd say that 7 points is a perfectly reasonable return from the three games. But let's drill down a little and look at the two latest matches alongside each other.

Well, Brighton at least wanted to play! But paid the price, as early goals in each half made life extremely difficult for them. Some of Arsenal's attacking play was sublime, and it was great - yet again - to see the goals shared out across the entire forward line. Despite only 32% possession, Arsenal almost always looked in control - apart from when Brighton got their second (and disallowed third) goals and there was a little bit of panic amongst the fan base.

Saka's early goal certainly helped set the pattern of play, and whilst Brighton saw a lot of the ball after that it was almost solely in front of Arsenal's back line. By contrast, a fast start against Newcastle did not yield a goal, and that made a massive difference to the pattern of the game as Newcastle seemed purely intent on wasting time, winning free kicks, and lumping the ball up to their man mountains. A goal would have made a massive difference. And whilst the game was tense, it was certainly no spectacle.

Against Brighton, Arsenal took their opportunities when they came. There was an element of good fortune to Odegaard's Ozil-type shot (bouncing the ball into the ground so that it would pop up high) - it looked more like a mis-hit. And when Nketiah did his 'fox in the box' thing very early in the second half the game was essentially done and dusted. Unlike against Newcastle, when chances were few and far between, and players snatched at the few opportunities that did come their way.


Martinelli's goal against Brighton was a contender for goal of the season. And if not goal of the season, certainly pass of the season by Odegaard. And whilst there were wobbles - the second and (almost) third - there was an element of comfortably keeping Brighton at arm's length.


By contrast, the Newcastle game was attritional and intense; aided and abetted by the non-footballing aspects of Newcastle's play. They pressed hard, doubled (and occasionally trebled) up continually on Saka and Martinelli, and spent as much time as possible keeping the ball out of play and feigning injury- as Eddie Howe sides are known to do when up against superior opposition; there were some parallels to watching Howe's Bournemouth also looking to waste time at every turn - their calling card. I suppose that this illustrates great respect to Arsenal, because Newcastle have hardly done that all season, but the Gunners are of course classier opposition than most.

And so the longer the game went on, the more tense it got. Newcastle continued to show little intent going forward, but looked to make the most of dead ball situations. By contrast, Arsenal seemed to get their knickers in a twist; a little slow moving the ball about, concentrating on the left hand side when I would have thought that trying to match Saka up to the ocean going cruise ship that is Dan Burn may have been more effective, and not getting the ball to Odegaard anything like enough.


The flow of play was not helped by some 'fussy' - and I'm being kind here - refereeing from the out-of-his-depth Andy Madley. Not every foul is a booking, Andy, and apparently innocuous shirt tugs in midfield are apparently more worthy of a free kick and yellow card than removing somebody's shirt in the penalty area. 


He had an absolute stinker, and affected the way the game was played. Thank goodness that none of the Arsenal players on 4-card jeopardy were punished, leaving them all free to take their places at White Hart Lane in a couple of weeks. Certainly, whilst the game will be remembered for being tense, there was little incident to recall throughout - and I for one believe that the referee contributed to some of the inhibition in Arsenal's play.

There were few clear cut chances. Early on, Arsenal almost cut through on three or four occasions, but the most memorable chances were a smart save by Pope from Nketiah, and a Martinelli header that flashed just wide late on. Additionally, Arsenal had two shouts for a penalty. The second - for a handball by Murphy - would have been harsh (not that I would have complained), but an earlier one for a tug by Burn on Gabriel at a free kick would - one would have hoped - have been worth more than a cursory look by the VAR.


So a goalless draw. Not a disaster by any means. But there's a little more under the surface here. Because the substitutions - or lack of them - tell a story. Arsenal have little or no attacking depth at this stage. With Jesus out, ESR not yet ready to even make the bench, and Arteta clearly passing his verdict on Fabio Vieira by not bringing him on, there is little on the bench to make an impact. Admittedly, Arsenal aren't going to come up against such obdurate opposition as Newcastle every week, but there are a lots more games to play, two more competitions to (re)start, and squad rotation must come into the mix. 

For me, I feel that alongside the impending arrival of Mudryk and an alternative at centre-forward - not casting any aspersions on Eddie here; he's doing OK - some extra midfield cover of sufficient quality would not go amiss. In fact, I'd be rather insisting on it if I were the Manager. Let's see.

And now just a quick thought or two about the opposition, and the title race (for we're certainly in one here):

Liverpool - in bits. Need open heart surgery and a brand new midfield. Forget them this season
Chelsea - nowhere near the sum of their parts. Potter has a lot to do to sort them out. Work to do for Top 4
Tottenham - imploding. Lack creativity in midfield (as I said before the season started; Conte has finally owned up to it). Surely cannot continue to rely on one or two players
Manchester United - on their way back, unfortunately. Need to keep an eye on them.
Newcastle - yet to reach the Aguero/Nasri (if comparing their development to that of Manchester City) stage, yet still up in third place. This is as much a function of other sides under-performing, in my opinion - but they aren't going away any time soon
Manchester City - now tell me; would you rather rely on one (admittedly exceptional) player scoring all your goals, or would you prefer to see the goals spread around? Who wouldn't want Haaland in their side? But there's a clear over-reliance on him and De Bruyne. They're off their peak - yet may still be good enough, of course
And what does this mean for Arsenal? Well, judging from the lack of activity from the bench last night it's clear - as I've said and as if we didn't already know - that high class reinforcements are needed. They can't afford to sit back on their lead at the top of the table. We shall see... but I'm currently 'cautiously optimistic'.

Anyway, I'll be back next week, once Arteta has made the necessary 11 changes for the trip to Oxford. Maybe Chelsea can do us a favour on Thursday (I doubt it). But in the meantime, let's stick to our New Year's Resolution and BELIEVE! COYG!!!

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